2019
09-13
  TMO的用途
2019
09-13
任何事情都可归纳出一个中心论点,中心论点可由三至七个论据支持,这些论据本身也可是个分论点,被三至七个论据支持,如此延伸状如金字塔。
2019
09-13
芭田股份这股昨晚一字板竞价带动了涨价整体的情绪,叠加生态农业+磷化工+无人机,一号文件预期。
2019
09-13
Credit/debt cycles cause swings around that productivity uptrend. The way it works is that providing credit provides buying power that fuels spending on goods, services, and investment assets (first), which causes stronger economic activity and higher prices of these things (next). Providing credit also creates debt, which creates the need to pay back in the form of debt-service payments (that comes later) which in turn lessens the spending on goods, services, and investment assets (later) which leads to weaker economic activity and weaker prices of these things (after). So, credit/debt boosts growth at first and depresses it later. Central banks provide it to put on the gas when the economy has lots of slack and is growing slowly, and restrict it to put on the brakes when there isn’t much slack and the economy is growing fast. For these reasons, the effects of credit/debt on the demand, production, and prices of goods, services, and investment assets are inherently cyclical, which is why we have credit/debt cyclical moves around the earlier-described productivity uptrend.
2019
09-13
Appropriate spreads are required for the capitalist system to work. In essence, one person’s return is another person’s cost of financing. The economic machine works by central banks making cash available to those who can borrow it and generate higher returns than they have to pay back in interest. These spreads cannot be too large or too small because if they are too large they will encourage too much borrowing and lending and if they are too small they will lead to too little. Because short-term interest rates are normally below the rates of return of longer-term assets, people borrow at the short-term interest rate and buy long-term assets to profit from the spread. These long-term assets might be businesses, the assets that make these businesses work well (e.g., capital investments such as factories or equipment), equities, etc. Because of the borrowing and buying, the assets bought tend to go up, which rewards the leveraged borrower. That fuels asset price appreciation and most economic activity, and leads to the building of leveraged long positions. By contrast, if the expected returns of cash rise above the expected returns of bonds and/or above the expected returns of equities, investors are rewarded for holding on to cash and economic contractions will occur because the lending that would have been done instead is slowed.
2019
09-13
To be sustainable, debt growth must happen in a balanced way. Borrowing and lending has to be good for both debtors and creditors. When debt growth is too slow, investing and spending will not be enough for the economy to reach its potential, yet when debt growth is persistently higher than the growth rate of the income that is required to service the debts, demand will be unsustainable and debt problems will follow. For these reasons, the equilibrium rate of debt growth is that which is in line with the growth in the income that is required to service the debt. Because incomes are volatile, this cannot be precisely calibrated, which is why having savings (e.g., for a country, foreign exchange reserves) is important.